Place your bets: will Switch 2 succeed or fail?

Thread: Place your bets: will Switch 2 succeed or fail?

Will Switch 2 succeed or fail?

  • Big success matching or exceeding Switch 1

    Votes: 16 23.5%

  • Moderate success, falling a bit short of Switch 1

    Votes: 36 52.9%

  • Moderate failure, 50% or lower console sales compared to Switch

    Votes: 15 22.1%

  • Big failure, Nintendo made a dud.

    Votes: 1 1.5%
  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .
DonDonDonPata

DonDonDonPata

Bridge Burn Man
Well?

I like what I see, but I'm predicting….

moderate failure. The emphasis on GameCube stuff is the quiet giveaway. Nintendo should be tapping hard into their most successful platforms right now, the Wii and the DS. switch 2 hardware would probably work fine with ports of those games.

But GameCube? Look, I know GameCube has some good games but the wider Nintendo market doesn't care.
 
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I'm struggling to see anything other than success, coming out swinging with Mario Kart which will continue to sell over the console's lifetime. Big games to still be announced for the next year or so and a generation of kids who have only known Switch are now ready for something new and improved.

Put Fortnite on this thing immediately
 
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I am going with Moderate Success. People love the Switch and this is a better one. It will have all the Nintendo games there obviously. I think it will not sell as well as the Switch 1 due to pricing and not being as fresh. The handheld space has a lot of options now.

I could see them getting to Wii/DS games eventually. They have been working with the earliest systems and working their way up.

The Gamecube is super popular in the retro community right now. Although I am not sure why. I remember when the system came out and Gamestop couldn't get rid of them for $20. Most people hated the system when it was out.
 
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It's not quite a WII U situation but I don't see it taking off like Switch 1 did. Not a 100 million seller at it's price plus the memory card prices and the portability gimmick no longer being fresh
 
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Moderate success. The switch sold so much because it was affordable. Middle class is shrinking and I don't see families willing to drop that kind of money on consoles for their kids. It will still sell a lot but it will fall way short of the the Switch when all is said and done.

Edit: should also mention it will pass the PS5 & Xbox in sales and win the generation
 
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I think yall are living in the past on the price (of the console). $300 in 2017 is about $400 today. So $450 makes sense considering all other factors.

And Best Buy is selling Switch/OLED for $300/$350 respectively.

The game cost will be the only sticking point for some.
 
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regawdless said:
That will depend on how the consumers will react to 80&90 bucks for games for a budget oriented low end family mass market console.
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Yep, I think the cost of games will be a major hurdle for next-gen adoption rates. We still have 100s of millions of Switches and PS4s getting brand new game releases, even physical releases. People aren't in a hurry to buy new hardware only to pay $80 per game, a game that might not even be fully on the game card, depending on the game.
 
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I think there's a chance they walk back the game prices to be in line with the other companies. Basically going from $60 to $80 is not a good look even if it's not going to be every game.
 
If this console succeeds, then you deserve the industry you tolerate. I will not pity those who bitch, moan and cry about game prices and shit requiring internet or even an update to work. I have abandoned console gaming long ago. This console is a joke. Even the inflation adjustment folks have no argument because the console launches from the 5th and 6th with inflation adjustment is cheaper than the Switch 2 $450 price. On top of the fact the Switch 2 is outdated hardware.
 
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Rock And Roll said:
Moderate success. The switch sold so much because it was affordable. Middle class is shrinking and I don't see families willing to drop that kind of money on consoles for their kids. It will still sell a lot but it will fall way short of the the Switch when all is said and done.

Edit: should also mention it will pass the PS5 & Xbox in sales and win the generation
Click to expand...

PS5 passed 70 million sales not long ago. The system is almost 5 years old, to be fair, but that will be hard for Switch 2 to overtake quickly. Switch 2's main competitor will be PlayStation 6 and Xbox Next and SteamDeck 2. The PS5/XsX generation is already winding down and it was a dud.
 
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Big_Gainer said:
If this console succeeds, then you deserve the industry you tolerate. I will not pity those who bitch, moan and cry about game prices and shit requiring internet or even an update to work. I have abandoned console gaming long ago. This console is a joke. Even the inflation adjustment folks have no argument because the console launches from the 5th and 6th with inflation adjustment is cheaper than the Switch 2 $450 price. On top of the fact the Switch 2 is outdated hardware.
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You are way off with that "5th/6th gen were cheaper even with inflation."

PS2 was $300 in 2000, that about $550 today. Only the DC and GCN are lower since they were $200, which is about $375 now. And the PS2 out sold both combined by tens of millions of units.

PS1 was also $300 which would be about about $640 today. And it too dominated its competition. But for shits and giggles the N64 was $200 which is about $425 today. And you were paying $50-$60 for games that gen which would be about $100 -$125!per game.
 
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DonDonDonPata said:
PS5 passed 70 million sales not long ago. The system is almost 5 years old, to be fair, but that will be hard for Switch 2 to overtake quickly. Switch 2's main competitor will be PlayStation 6 and Xbox Next and SteamDeck 2. The PS5/XsX generation is already winding down and it was a dud.
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Yup and it will outsell their nex Gen offerings as well. Steam deck is it's only competition.
 
Massive success. Going by the initial showcase we all saw today, 70-100 million units sold by 2030 easy

Mario Kart World has the potential to sell more than Mario Kart 8 Deluxe if they tightened up the mechanics some
 
Normally, based on everything we saw and learned today, I would say a total failure, but since Nintendo fans are complete zealots, they will will gladly pull down their pants and bend over, then ask for more.

I voted moderate success. No way it will match Switch 1 will that pricing.
 
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I'm with the moderate failure (compared to Switch 1) crew. It's definitely breaching that impulse buy range, and trying to leapfrog the already too-high price of retail games is definitely going to give the wider audience pause. It'll still be a very successful console, but the big reveal ultimately felt like a company who's comfortable with their audience rather than an innovator who's reaching for a new one. No doubt their games will continue to be good to great, but Nintendo's put themselves in the budget slot for so long compared to the competition that it'll be a tough hurdle for casual fans.
 
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By this scale, I voted "moderate failure". If it sells more than half the units the Switch sells/sold when all is said and done that could still be a decent outcome for Nintendo. But the high prices for hardware and games... yeah yeah yeah inflation this inflation that, I get it. But they are potentially breaching some serious psychological barriers when it comes to the normies that pumped the numbers into the stratosphere for systems like Wii, PS2, and Switch, both for hardware prices and game prices.

It'll sell big out of the gate, but once that initial pent up demand and enthusiast class is exhausted, things could get dicey.
 
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Going to go with "moderate" success. Switch had the pandemic Animal Crossing FOMO moment. Can't guarantee that in the future.

Lining up the pricing with Steam Deck makes Steam Deck more attractive IMO, but also might just solidify the prices point of the new hybrid market. I agree with @cryptoadam … if you guys think MS, Sony, Valve, Asus, whoever is going to keep pushing out the specs arms race at lower prices than Nintendo, you're as detached from reality as a Tesla protestor. The whole premium market will sink or swim at these prices.

This is going to be a bit of a leap (and a hope), but I really think the big story is the From Software Switch 2 exclusive + the cheaper Japanese pricing ($333 approx) + the I believe of symbolic importance of RRRRRIDGE RRRRACER!!! at launch.

It feels like a coup, like a sea change. Sony completely dropped the ball on being the gateway to the world of Japanese development this gen, and Nintendo has historically courted (abysmally) Western devs to get on board with new hardware.

If Nintendo can spark the Japanese gaming market and industry, lower spec, faster dev cycles, become the target platform, I think they'll continue have the biggest slice of the pie, even if the pie shrinks.
 
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Mario Kart World alone will probably sell more copies than the top 15-30 best PlayStation 5 games combined. Maybe even better than the top 40-60 best PS5 games. And that's with the steep price. Book it. Parents pay like 300-400 bucks for a set of legos in a box the size of textbook these days
 
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General success compared to all Nintendo consoles, less success than Switch, but with higher prices may have better incoming revenue once enough people adopt
 
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Boss Mog said:
Normally, based on everything we saw and learned today, I would say a total failure, but since Nintendo fans are complete zealots, they will will gladly pull down their pants and bend over, then ask for more.

I voted moderate success. No way it will match Switch 1 will that pricing.
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$80 games is the only egregious thing. Charging for the tech demo game is also tacky but nothing seems that bad compared to other things in the industry. We have 2k GPUs, a $700 discless "pro" system, and Xbox just giving up all of their exclusives.
 
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Cravis said:
It'll be years before they capture the kids market.
Parents will balk at paying $70-80 for games. To try that in this economy, good luck to them.
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I think this is where people underestimate the Game Sharing value add. We're well into a generation of gamer parents. Dad can have a Switch 2 Day 1, but kids might not get a Switch 2 until xyz. $79.99 is cheaper than $59.99 times x number of household copies.
Not sure if it'll fly like that in reality, but something to consider.
 
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I said moderate failure, though I'm not rooting for it to come true. As much as I've lost interest in Nintendo post-Wii U, I think they're doing better for gaming than Sony and MS.

I just don't see Switch 2 selling like the OG, more options now and it's more expensive than the current Switch. Not as easy for parents to buy for their kids, and for people who can afford it, they might not want one.

I'm interested in it though, it seems like a really cool piece of tech, I love the 120hz screen, that alone makes me want one.
 
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Spiders said:
I think this is where people underestimate the Game Sharing value add. We're well into a generation of gamer parents. Dad can have a Switch 2 Day 1, but kids might not get a Switch 2 until xyz. $79.99 is cheaper than $59.99 times x number of household copies.
Not sure if it'll fly like that in reality, but something to consider.
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This is a valid point. We have a Switch lite and when we have a Switch 2, the kids can play rocket league and fifa etc together on separate systems without needing two copies of the game and that's not a trivial point. Local multi is still a thing on one system obviously, but this gives more options and it will be useful for some people. $80 is still going to be a tough pill to swallow for many though.
 
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Cravis said:
It'll be a moderate failure. Nintendo fans will make it a success.

It'll be years before they capture the kids market.
Parents will balk at paying $70-80 for games. To try that in this economy, good luck to them.

"But Jimmy you have a switch and Mario Kart at home"
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Justify a new Mario Kart game to your parents for 500$ and that's getting a deal! I literally thought to myself.....I can just play Mario Kart 8 right now for nothing if I need a fix.

Couple that with additional controller costs, memory card costs.....you're really not getting the Switch 2 and necessary items without capping around 600-700 just at starting cost.

The only people who's going to playing at launch are rich kids and adults. Nintendo used to be the kid-friendly console.....gone are those days.
 
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