Intel is a good buy. It should prove to be a good company over the longer run. Its definitely a value buy. So is TSM.
If you're looking for growth AMD, ON, MU, NVIDA are also growth buys.
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Intel is a good buy. It should prove to be a good company over the longer run. Its definitely a value buy. So is TSM.
If you're looking for growth AMD, ON, MU, NVIDA are also growth buys.
The issue is that if they rose rates too fast and too high. They risk financial destabilization.
So they will raise it but not by the amount the market is expecting. It will be considerably less.
The Fed will cause a recession if they raise it 4 times this year. For them to control inflation they would need to raise it to 3.0% and more which would kill the market.
It's too late to raise it. So they will allow inflation to run its course specially since its supply side driven
So they will raise it but not by the amount the market is expecting. It will be considerably less.
The Fed will cause a recession if they raise it 4 times this year. For them to control inflation they would need to raise it to 3.0% and more which would kill the market.
It's too late to raise it. So they will allow inflation to run its course specially since its supply side driven
Nikana
I'm A Power Ranger 'Til The End
The problem is that the real federal funds rate is negative 7.5% so to raise interest rates by 7.5% would kill the market.
So I'm still bullish because the FED won't be that stupid to do raise rates that high and that fast.
They loose credibility since foward guidance wasn't given.
So I'm still bullish because the FED won't be that stupid to do raise rates that high and that fast.
They loose credibility since foward guidance wasn't given.
Fed started to panic? St.Louis Fed president Jim Bullard ( a "hawck") has gone full speed:
*HE FAVORS A 100 BPS INTEREST-RATE INCREASES BY JULY 1
*A HALF-POINT U.S. RATE INCREASE (1st one since 2000)
* He said Fed "SHOULD BE OPEN TO CONSIDERING INTER-MEETING INCREASE".
Market reaction - what is now being priced in:
A 30% probability of an emergency rate hike (as soon as tomorrow...)
A 100% probability of a 50bp rate hike in March
A 40% chance of 7 rate-hikes this year...
Source: www.zerohedge.com
*HE FAVORS A 100 BPS INTEREST-RATE INCREASES BY JULY 1
*A HALF-POINT U.S. RATE INCREASE (1st one since 2000)
* He said Fed "SHOULD BE OPEN TO CONSIDERING INTER-MEETING INCREASE".
Market reaction - what is now being priced in:
A 30% probability of an emergency rate hike (as soon as tomorrow...)
A 100% probability of a 50bp rate hike in March
A 40% chance of 7 rate-hikes this year...
Source: www.zerohedge.com
Nikana
I'm A Power Ranger 'Til The End
If the FED is that "powerful* why would they do something that would cause so much panic?
That's where I get confused.
The FED sets something called the federal funds rate.
That rate determines all the rates, think of it as the god of rates.
It determines what you borrow at, what a company borrows at, what a country borrows at.
If it increases, all the rates increase. If it decreases, all the rates decrease.
Nikana
I'm A Power Ranger 'Til The End
Nikana
I'm A Power Ranger 'Til The End
Did some analysis.
Probability of a recession is under 30.0% for this year.
More than 5 hikes is under 60.% for the year
March 50 basis point hike is around 60.0% for the year
3 to 4 hikes is around 80.0% for the year.
Market new aggregate target is 4950 for the year.
Probability of a recession is under 30.0% for this year.
More than 5 hikes is under 60.% for the year
March 50 basis point hike is around 60.0% for the year
3 to 4 hikes is around 80.0% for the year.
Market new aggregate target is 4950 for the year.
America war posturing is wrecking the market. For fucks sakes stop
esoteric
Member
How likely would a hard crash be? I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy on the cheap.
If there is war. Difficult to say.........give me an hour i'll do some math and post something.
This is what I got I assumed that FED will not change rates due to market instability under war however growth takes a hit and inflation risk rises.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Terminal | |
| Cash-flow | $ 150.7 | $ 162.7 | $ 175.8 | $ 189.8 | $ 205.0 | $ 213.2 |
6.29% | 6.29% | 6.29% | 6.29% | 6.29% | 7.50% | |
$ 142 | $ 153 | $ 165 | $ 179 | $ 193 | $ 3,876 | |
| Normal | $ 4,707.98 | |||||
| War Scenario | $ 3,931.82 |
esoteric
Member
Paypal, Block (SQ), Shop and RBLX looks good.
I would buy Paypal around $90, Shop could go lower if the market continues like this, RBLX I think will bottom around $53.
I would buy Paypal around $90, Shop could go lower if the market continues like this, RBLX I think will bottom around $53.
Market is heading lower. It would need really good news to recover.
Next target is 4000.
Next target is 4000.
Nikana
I'm A Power Ranger 'Til The End
So markets look to have priced in a situation where Russia takes the region but not a full scale war.
So markets should perform favorably from now as long as Russia doesn't extend.
So markets should perform favorably from now as long as Russia doesn't extend.
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Nikana
I'm A Power Ranger 'Til The End
Sorry man. It's rough out there.Im getting massacred
I'm REALLY close to my stop loss.
This Russia nonsense is getting old fast
Im getting massacred
I'm REALLY close to my stop loss.
This Russia nonsense is getting old fast
Its not Russia entirely. Market liquidity dropping and bears are winning.
Been a busy morning lads. Up since 3 am hedging against this.
While we've been betting against high yield bonds and U.S treasuries. I did not expect Russia to attack.
If you have a portfolio. Sell your new positions and wait. The market has not priced in a war.
Next stop is either 3900 or 3700 on the S&P
While we've been betting against high yield bonds and U.S treasuries. I did not expect Russia to attack.
If you have a portfolio. Sell your new positions and wait. The market has not priced in a war.
Next stop is either 3900 or 3700 on the S&P
I lost about $1.31 million. Hedging is saving my life right now.
I'm not reliant on the money so it doesn't hurt me that bad. Just sucks. Hopefully it will all come back.
Historically after a deep drop of more than 18.0% the fed put kicks in. I would say around 3900 to 3700 we could see a rebound.
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