She has never caved and has a billion reasons why she never has to.
No, I don't think J.K. Rowling will ever cave. She was described as a radical feminist before trans activism was even a thing, and she's not about to bend on her principles over the hurt feelings of dudes who feel like women. She already speaks half of the approved rhetoric, so it's really all down to whether trans women can ever really truly be accepted as
actual women. That's just not ever going to happen. And as Rowling is well aware, something close to 90% of her fans are in agreement with her viewpoint on actual women vs trans women.
What impact could this have on the Potterverse? There may come a day sooner than otherwise where no one cares to license the product. That day clearly isn't today, though. Maybe in ten years, maybe.
Then again, I think the controversy will come to a head when trans women are no longer accepted at women's sporting events based on good common sense becoming widely accepted and far left hetero activists will eventually have to stare down the barrel of accepting and marrying trans people as though it were a fully traditional coupling --
that is the straw I expect will break the camel's back.
Everyone should have the basic human right to know the biological sex of whom they are marrying for the explicit purposes of religious belief and a basic human right to try and build a family. I'll just wait for the first landmark lawsuit where a heterosexual person discovers they've been lied to by a trans person and is now forced to violate their religious beliefs by getting a divorce so they can start a natural family...