[Grisham]

Sony expects PS5 sales to decline, ‘no existing major franchise titles’ before April 2025 | VGC

PS5 has now sold 54.7m units; Sony confirms it will fall short of lofty 25m fiscal year…

www.videogameschronicle.com

Sony says it expects PlayStation 5 hardware sales to "gradually decline" during its next fiscal year, which runs from April to March 2025, and confirmed it plans to release no "major existing franchise titles" during this 12-month period.

In the company's financial results for the three months ended December 31, 2023, Sony gaming division reported another record quarter in terms of revenue, with PS5 sales reaching 54.7m, but lowered its sales forecast for the year after it fell behind in its lofty hardware target.

Sony Interactive Entertainment had set an ambitious sales target of 25 million PS5s for the year ending March 2024. However, in the latest quarter, it sold 8.2 million consoles, bringing the total for the year so far to 16.4m. The company said it now expects to fall short of its original target by 4 million units (21m).

The corporation now expects ¥210 billion in sales for the year from its Game & Network Services segment – a 5% downward revision – which it said was partly due to a decrease in sales and an increase in losses from hardware due to promotions.

"Regarding PS5 hardware, which will enter its fifth year since launch," said Sony president, COO and CFO Hiroki Totoki. "Partially due to entering the latter half of the console cycle, we're aiming to optimise sales with a greater emphasis on balance with profits. So we expect a gradual decline in unit sales from next fiscal year onwards.

"Regarding first-party software, we aim to continue to focus on producing high-quality productions and producing live service games. But while major projects are currently under development, we do not plan to release any new major existing franchise titles next fiscal year like God of War: Ragnarok and Marvel Spider-Man 2."

In software, Sony highlighted Marvel Spider-Man 2, which it said has now sold 10 million units. The Marvel Spider-Man series has sold-through more than 50 million copies worldwide across PC and console, it said.

Sony's Network services revenue – which encompasses PS Plus and advertising revenue – increased again to its highest level since last year's service revamp at ¥137.1 billion (up from ¥122.2 billion last year).

PlayStation Network monthly active users (MAU) also reached a record high of 123 million, up 11 million year-on-year. Sony says its MAU are the estimated total number of unique accounts that played games or used services on the PlayStation Network during the last month of the quarter.

Software sales (PS4 and PS5) increased 3.2 million year-over-year, to 89.7 million units. Digital software accounted for 66% of quarterly game sales, compared to 62% last year.

Tokyo-based industry consultant Dr Serkan Toto told VGC: "After the Q2 sales came out in 2023, it was already crystal clear Sony would never reach 25 million units this fiscal year. Q3 was OK but only possible because of Sony's heavy promotions and discounts during the holidays.

"There is one bright spot in Sony's PlayStation business, namely the record number of 123 million monthly active users on the PlayStation Network."

Sony launched a new PS5 Slim model in November. Once inventory of the launch model has sold out, the Slim console will become the only one available.

It was recently claimed that Sony is planning to launch a PS5 Pro console in late 2024, and that it will feature a proprietary DLSS-like solution.

 

[Stilton Disco]

Oh hey, my predictions about the consequences of shrinking their library by consolidating their first party titles solely down to difficult to make AAA games, with bloated and inefficient woke workforces, while giving potential customers reasons not to buy their systems by porting to PC, is coming true.

Lovely how that consistently keeps happening.

 

[regawdless]

Oh hey, my predictions about the consequences of shrinking their library by consolidating their first party titles solely down to difficult to make AAA games, with bloated and inefficient woke workforces, while giving potential customers reasons not to buy their systems by porting to PC, is coming true.

Lovely how that consistently keeps happening.

Except for the fact that it's totally normal for console sales to start declining after the life cycles mid point. Which is only logical, sales can't increase forever. And even during the decline, they will sell many million consoles. PS5 is extremely successful, but maybe we'll see the effect of what you're saying with the PS6 launch.

 

[SEGA_2012]

Of course it is going to decline. Playstation is shit right now and the only reason they are selling so much is because they have no competition.

 

[FactsAreDead]

As I said just days ago:

PS5 will be remembered historically for being a placeholder-generation for the PS6.

What an atrocious generation this has been software-wise, both for PS5 and Xbox Series. At this point anyone not buying a PC is a fool.

 

[Stilton Disco]

Except for the fact that it's totally normal for console sales to start declining after the life cycles mid point. Which is only logical, sales can't increase forever. And even during the decline, they will sell many million consoles. PS5 is extremely successful, but maybe we'll see the effect of what you're saying with the PS6 launch.

True, but we're also in a generation that has been held back games wise by the lockdowns and just after the Slim launch, which usually precedes the year of highest peak sales, and is instead preceding a fall in sales this time, and we know the PS5 has already fallen behind the PS4 in units sold as well.

We similarly know there's been a market contraction due to Xbox sales tanking, so there are millions of previous home console customers who have not bought a system yet this generation and haven't migrated to PlayStation either.

So perhaps it would be more accurate to say this is further evidence to support my predictions of PlayStation's shite management's effects on the brand health, ability to capitalise on potential new customers and failure to adequately plan ahead, for the problems their change in approach to their first party library would bring for their software launch schedule.

 

[HeresJohnny]

Arrogant Sony's return has yielded similarly shitty results. They are coasting by on a combination of name recognition and lack of competition because their closest competitor shot themselves in the penis. They are also staring down the barrel at Switch 2, which is going to eat their lunch come Christmas.

Bad bosses making bad policy and finally we see bad results.

 

[HeresJohnny]

Except for the fact that it's totally normal for console sales to start declining after the life cycles mid point. Which is only logical, sales can't increase forever. And even during the decline, they will sell many million consoles. PS5 is extremely successful, but maybe we'll see the effect of what you're saying with the PS6 launch.

This chart is misleading because prior to PS3, every console generation ended at pretty much 5 years on the nose. 5 years was never the midpoint, it was the end.

Edit: it's more like 5.5-6 but still the new hardware was announced and people knew it was coming with trade shows showing off the new hardware at the 5th year.

 

[and 3 others]

God, this forum is so tiring

 

[regawdless]

This chart is misleading because prior to PS3, every console generation ended at pretty much 5 years on the nose. 5 years was never the midpoint, it was the end.

Edit: it's more like 5.5-6 but still the new hardware was announced and people knew it was coming with trade shows showing off the new hardware at the 5th year.

PS5 trajectory is similar to the PS4 one though, which is a valid point of reference.

 

[CAPTAIN RAINCOAT]

if you look at the previous Sony consoles the ps5 is perhaps the worst in terms of actual first party output....it honestly doesnt even feel like ps5 had started this generation yet at all as all we have had are remasters and remakes and cross gen titles

 

[Hostile_18]

Oh hey, my predictions about the consequences of shrinking their library by consolidating their first party titles solely down to difficult to make AAA games, with bloated and inefficient woke workforces, while giving potential customers reasons not to buy their systems by porting to PC, is coming true.

Lovely how that consistently keeps happening.

The absolutely nailed it in the PS4 gen, I very much doubt this is the reason..more than likely its the mixed message live service push and second guessing that has caused this.

 

[HeresJohnny]

PS5 trajectory is similar to the PS4 one though, which is a valid point of reference.

There's more than that though; the PS2 numbers are waaaaay wrong. By March 2006, the PS2 had sold cumulatively almost 104 million units. By 2001 the PS1 had sold 88 million units. Also bear in mind that worldwide launches were not a thing back then, Japan got them first and then the rest of the world like 6 months or so later.

 

[Stilton Disco]

PS5 trajectory is similar to the PS4 one though, which is a valid point of reference.

But you're not taking into account lockdowns, the unfulfilled demand for the first few years, the greater competition from the XO compared to the XSS/X, the fact sales have fallen belowPS4 and the fact this news is also announcing no major first party games for a whole year.

This is not a matter of simply business as usual, this is a generation where you would expect more prolonged hardware growth due to increased demand, delayed supply and decreased competitiveness from the main alternative, and instead we are seeing a market contraction for 2 of the 3 main players and a sharper fall in demand than would be expected, we're the change in strategies, that were implemented specifically to grow both Xbox and PlayStation, working as intended.

 

[JORMBO]

Sony has no games so good guy Microsoft decides it is a great strategy to help them out instead of kicking them in the nuts.

 

[Stilton Disco]

The absolutely nailed it in the PS4 gen, I very much doubt this is the reason..more than likely its the mixed message live service push and second guessing that has caused this.

Possibly, I will admit it is too early to tell for sure why what is happening is happening, but regardless of what you think the reason is, you have to admit, this is still another point of data in favour of my predictions, and nothing about it counters my theory as to why it is happening.

The why is still up for debate, yes, but the what, that I keep getting right.

 

[FactsAreDead]

People who defend PS5 make me SICK to the core.

 

[Stilton Disco]

People who defend PS5 make me SICK to the core.

Steady on mate, it's just a product. Getting your knickers in a twist over any of these systems is simply not worth it, regardless of whether it's love or hate you feel.

Don't buy what you don't like, discuss why you like/dislike what you do, sure, but if you get emotional over them, step back and get some perspective.

 

[Perc Angle]

I'm a PS guy, this gen has been awful.

 

[Hostile_18]

If I'd of stayed on PS5 I'd of being pretty happy content wise. Naughty Dogs mismanagement and Blue Point not really doing much since launch would be sticking points though.

 

[Amorous Biscuit]

No titles in existing franchises makes me hopeful for new franchises?

...I'm so naive

 

[and 3 others]

Ya'll'd be happy to put me on the first train to the glue factory.

Also, what is BluePoint working on!?

 

[HeresJohnny]

If I'd of stayed on PS5 I'd of being pretty happy content wise. Naughty Dogs mismanagement and Blue Point not really doing much since launch would be sticking points though.

Hard to imagine being happy with PS5 output if you had a PS1/2. The output is drastically reduced and nowhere near the original IPs. In fact, I'd go so far to say that there's only two games Sony has made that feel like PS caliber titles so far from this generation and that's Returnal and Helldivers II. The rest is just ok or reheated leftovers from the PS4 era.

 

[and 3 others]

Hard to imagine being happy with PS5 output if you had a PS1/2. The output is drastically reduced and nowhere near the original IPs.

While I absolutely agree with you, fortunately for me, I don't have the same free time and ambition of my PS2 self.

 

[Stilton Disco]

So they're not just expecting sales to decline, they're already falling below expectations, despite games like Spiderman 2 and all the massive third party games last year, that often run better on their system than PC and, again, Xbox sales cratering, as well as Switch sales hitting saturation.

That's a major sales forecast contraction, and I hope we can agree proof their change of strategy, that I have been consistently stating won't work, isn't working.

 

[Amorous Biscuit]

So they're not just expecting sales to decline, they're already falling below expectations, despite games like Spiderman 2 and all the massive third party games, that often run better on their system than PC, last year and, again, Xbox sales cratering, as well as Switch sales hitting saturation.

That's a major sales forecast contraction, and I hope we can agree proof their change of strategy, that I have been consistently stating won't work, isn't working.

I wouldn't be surprised if other external factors are at play for the lessening sales. Sony's flip-flopping on strategy certainly hasn't helped their cause, same way their non-existent lineup of software also gives zero reason for a purchase.


Though it wouldn't shock me if cost of living and a looming threat of recession are making belts tighten across the board.

 

[HeresJohnny]

So they're not just expecting sales to decline, they're already falling below expectations, despite games like Spiderman 2 and all the massive third party games last year, that often run better on their system than PC and, again, Xbox sales cratering, as well as Switch sales hitting saturation.

That's a major sales forecast contraction, and I hope we can agree proof their change of strategy, that I have been consistently stating won't work, isn't working.

Also when the economy gets tight what's the first thing that gets cut? Entertainment for most people I'd wager. People are still reeling from historic inflation and food costs are still fucking ridiculous. It's an easy choice for most people to make when that choice is a $500 toy or putting food on the table. I don't think Sony has handled any of this generation properly, but I'd also argue the economic headwinds are going to fuck them just as hard as the rest of their bad decisions.

Not the best time to be peddling $500 hardware and $75 games.

 

[GreyHorace]

Is Sony's game division wholly controlled by their American branch? The parent Japanese company should take control once again so that these fuckups they've done in recent years can be rectified.

 

[Stilton Disco]

And yet Switch has consistently been meeting expectations, the last iPhone exceeded them, the Steam Deck and other handhelds have created a whole new market, and PC gaming generally has only grown, even in the west.

Let's not pretend inflation and recessionary worries are only just hitting the market. This has been the status quo for half a decade now, and in that time PS5 was the most desired product on the market and selling out as fast as it could be produced.

This is a sudden change that does not fit the patterns shown by other desirable high end products, and is indicative of a failure on PlayStation management themselves part, not outside forces beyond their control.

 

[cryptoadam]

More like we know Switch 2 is coming out with Metroid Prime 4 and its going to melt faces.

 

[HeresJohnny]

And yet Switch has consistently been meeting expectations, the last iPhone exceeded them, the Steam Deck and other handhelds have created a whole new market, and PC gaming generally has only grown, even in the west.

Let's not pretend inflation and recessionary worries are only just hitting the market. This has been the status quo for half a decade now, and in that time PS5 was the most desired product on the market and selling out as fast as it could be produced.

This is a sudden change that does not fit the patterns shown by other desirable high end products, and is indicative of a failure on PlayStation management themselves part, not outside forces beyond their control.

Oh I agree, Sony has made it easy to say no to one during a time when people are being forced to say no to something. That's the problem. PS5 is not an iPhone and the Switch is reasonably priced with nowhere near the barrier of entry.

 

[Nikana]

 

[Stilton Disco]

More like we know Switch 2 is coming out with Metroid Prime 4 and its going to melt faces.

I got it totally wrong last time with the Switch, so I'm not going to dare make a prediction until after we see the first Christmas and planned game support.

Nintendo are the masters of spinning straw into gold and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I just have no confidence in my ability to judge how things will go based on passed precedence alone.

 

[JORMBO]

I'm a PS guy, this gen has been awful.

Yep I have been on PS since the PS1 days. I have recently moved to PC. I will keep buying PS, but that is only due to things like FF Rebirth only hitting PS first. Everything else will be PC or Nintendo. I liked a lot of Sony games last gen. Horizon, GoW, Spiderman all felt fresh. This gen they just rehashed them with worse stories. They also made the games a bit longer so the pacing feels off as the experience drags too much. Their game budgets have become way too bloated which is leading to them not taking any risks and also taking forever to release stuff. Then they've raised prices on games, online, etc.

 

[regawdless]

@Stilton Disco loves this

 

[ManofTwo]

 

[p_banned]

 

[Hostile_18]

Hard to imagine being happy with PS5 output if you had a PS1/2. The output is drastically reduced and nowhere near the original IPs. In fact, I'd go so far to say that there's only two games Sony has made that feel like PS caliber titles so far from this generation and that's Returnal and Helldivers II. The rest is just ok or reheated leftovers from the PS4 era.

I'd of been really happy with Returnal, Last of Us 1 Remake, Demon Souls, Spiderman 2, God of War Ragnorok, Rachet and Clank and Horizon Zero Dawn 2.

I suppose that's over a three year period, but that doesn't count multiplatforms and replaying my favorites.

Edit; the first two years of PS4 were really slow. It only really kicked off with Bloodborne IMO. Still no excuse for a lackluster 2024, with all the internal teams these platform holders have. It has applied to Xbox for a decade and it applies here to Sony too.

 

[Arkam]

So that means AT LEAST another year for GoT2? FUUUUUUUUCK!

 

[Hostile_18]

@Stilton Disco loves this

I was just going to say I bet they go heavy with the PC releases this year to make up for the shortfall.