How much will Metroid Prime 4 (tentative title) sell within its first month & LTD?

[FactsAreDead]

1986	NES	Metroid	2.73
1991	GB	Metroid II: Return of Samus	1.72
1994	SNES	Super Metroid	1.42
2002	GBA	Metroid Fusion	1.60
2002	GCN	Metroid Prime	2.84
2004	GBA	Metroid: Zero Mission	0.93*
2004	GBA	Classic NES Series: Metroid	0.42*
2004	GCN	Metroid Prime 2: Echoes	1.10
2005	DS	Metroid Prime Pinball	0.26*
2006	DS	Metroid Prime: Hunters	1.08
2007	Wii	Metroid Prime 3: Corruption	1.41
2009	Wii	Metroid Prime: Trilogy	0.64*
2010	Wii	Metroid: Other M	1.31*
2016	3DS	Metroid Prime: Federation Force	0.15*
2017	3DS	Metroid: Samus Returns	0.56*

Source: VGSales WIki

The above are sales data of all past Metroid-games. I included those to give some context about what to expect from Metroid in general. The idea of this thread is simple: Place your bet aka tell us what you believe Metroid Prime 4 will sell within its first month on the market. Additionally, what do you think will be its LTD-numbers aka it's overall sales after 1-2 years? Post them now, so we can all compare afterwards who got his/her prediction closest!

I picked Metroid Prime 4 specifically because I think its fans massively overhype what this game can do, both sales-wise and quality-wise. But maybe I'm wrong and it'll sell gangbusters, who knows. :>

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My prediction:

FM: 1.8 mio | LTD: 2.4 mio

Europe: 800k | 1.035 mio
USA: 900k | 1.3 mio
Japan: 45k | 65k

I wanted to go a bit higher originally, but I just don't see it sell better. Unless the game has some longevity-inducing, hype feature that has people spend their time with the game beyond its singleplayer-mods, this is what I expect.

 

[Nicktendo]

I think anywhere from 2-3 million would be good numbers given the series' history.

I doubt that will net them anything close to a good ROI, unfortunately...

The only way I can see it selling more is if it's a mid-high 90s on Metacritic and Nintendo give it space to breathe while also heavily promoting it. I think that is also very unlikely scenario given the hellish development.

Another possibility is it being the first "Switch-Pro" exclusive, which might give it a boost. Again, unlikely. Nintendo would go with a more widely-loved and proven franchise.

Ultimately, it's been that long since it was announced, and while the thirst is real amongst Nintendo's hardcore, I don't see the Animal Crossing or MK8DX brigade queueing up at midnight to purchase it.

 

[Arc]

Metroid is such an outsider in Nintendo's gaming lineup. Even fellow serious games like Zelda have much wider appeal.

Metroid is just niche. A game about getting lost and exploring. And if you try to change it, all historical attempts have shown that you infringe on what makes it so fun.

I don't think this will do much better than past installments. It will however, done correctly, provide Nintendo with a lot of goodwill, headlines, and top-down enthusiast gamer hype for the system, which trickles down to mainstream gamers (for the system, not Metroid). That can be it's own value, as well as broadening the library, and for example, something Sony is not seeing with their Japanese studio closures for their less popular games.

 

[Stilton Disco]

I'm expecting 2m, hoping for 3m.

It's really not a huge seller, but if it were ever going to find a bigger audience, this is the platform to do it on, especially if there's not a deluge of releases around it to compete with.